It is now clear that George W. Bush has weathered the storms of 2005 and is in an upward swing. After bottoming out with approval ratings in the high 30s, he is now back to the mid to high 40s in a number of recent polls. There are four possible reasons, which are not mutually exclusive.

First, the flow of bad news that swamped Bush in the last half of 2005 has abated. One might have expected some recovery by Bush due to nothing more than the fading novelty of Cindy Sheehan and fading memories of Katrina.

Second, in a related vein, good news has helped Bush. The Iraqi elections were impressive, and gas prices have fallen. The economy has continued to flourish despite natural disasters and fuel costs.

Third, Bush has gone on the offensive on Iraq and, to a lesser extent, the economy. His arguments have been sharper and more focused, as well as more human. His willingness to concede something to his opponents struck a blow against one of his greatest weaknesses—the impression shared by many in the public that Bush is stubborn (in a bad way), too sure of himself, and prone to speak in assertions rather than arguments.

Finally, those opponents have done Bush’s work for him by once again showing themselves as simultaneously defeatist and hysterical, more worried about the President of the United States than about the nation’s enemies. Thanks to Jack Murtha, Nancy Pelosi, and the MoveOn.Org crowd, Bush and Republicans now have an opportunity to present themselves against a real—and not very attractive—alternative. It may not yet have dawned on liberals that most Americans are not going to get exercised about a program to eavesdrop on international conversations between people in America and al Qaeda operatives calling from Islamabad.

Which of these factors has been most important to Bush’s recovery is difficult to say. They have almost surely all contributed.

The question is where to go from here. Bush’s recovery thus far leaves him with little margin for error. And presumably he does not want to finish the last three years of his presidency with 45 percent approval. If his late 2005 recovery is to mean anything, it must serve as a platform for something better.

About two months ago, an unnamed Republican congressional leader remarked that Bush needed to stop trying to hit home runs—like Social Security reform—and start hitting singles and doubles. Recently, an administration official repeated the analogy. Fittingly for this president, it is a baseball analogy, and what it means is that Bush needs to concentrate on a series of modest but important steps rather than expending his energy on earth-shattering reforms that may be beyond his reach. In this respect, Bill Clinton’s road back after 1995 serves as something of a model. Bush doubtless will (and should) resist making puny symbolic gestures a substitute for policy, but (to borrow an analogy from another sport) there is plenty of room to run between school uniforms and revamping Social Security.

So what could these singles and doubles look like? They should fall under the three themes of security, prosperity, and progress.

Security:

1. Extend the PATRIOT Act as approved by the House, or as close to that version as possible. This should be (and indeed, given the short extension approved last month, must be) one of the first orders of business.

2. Send to Congress a bill to clarify and codify the President’s rights under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The downside is that such a step could be interpreted as somehow conceding that the NSA surveillance program was inappropriate. There is no reason, however, that Bush cannot hold to his original position—that he already has authority—but present the bill as a concession to the concerns of honorable Americans who fear undefined executive power. Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus on his own authority, but then subsequently asked Congress for approval (which it gave). Locke himself spoke of "executive prerogative," or the right of the executive to act in emergency situations for the survival of the commonwealth, but made clear that the executive should then seek consent of the legislature. If there is a question about legality, answer it with a law. Make Democrats vote on it.

3. Continue the full court press on Iraq. If circumstances permit, draw down troops. Some analysts say a troop reduction of 50,000 might be possible by year’s end. That much should be plenty to show Americans that Iraq is not an endless struggle; 30,000 may be enough for that.

4. Recognize that immigration revisions are not going to happen as long as concerns swirl around border security. Efforts in Congress to tighten the border are not the enemy of Bush’s guest worker program; they are a political prerequisite for it, and ought to be a policy prerequisite. Bush would eliminate a gaping vulnerability among conservative-leaning independents by admitting this, tackling border security first, and using it as a starting point to move toward a guest worker program later in the year.